And the winner could be....

The best thing about the Academy Awards? It's the end of the awards season!

It’s that time again. Although it’s increasingly obvious that the film industry is broken, distribution is a disaster, theatres are struggling and studios have become so uncertain about the entire business that Warner Brothers decided that selling the whole place would be easier than trying to figure out how to market an intellectual property -Looney Tunes- that has been synonymous with the company for ninety years.

And how does the Academy react to the confusion? Give the lion’s share of this year’s nominations to…two Warner Brothers films, “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another”, setting up the biggest competition for the night.

Here are the usual rules: If you’re going to take a shot at picking the winners, go for the whole package, not just the big categories. 80% is guess work. Yes, Academy members probably vote on films in which they have a commercial interest. They probably haven’t seen all of the nominated films (I haven’t either), and they may very well have given the ballot to their eleven-year-old to fill.

These are the things that I expect to win, not my personal choices, although I’m reasonably satisfied with about a third of them. (Two of my favorite films last year, “The Mastermind” and “Nouvelle Vague”, didn’t even get a single nomination…).

So with no further ado, I’m claiming my space on the limb…

Best Picture: “One Battle After Another”

Best Actor: Finally the year for Timothee Chalamet? Nope. And as much as I would love to see this go to Ethan Hawke, I think this will be “Sinners”’ biggest win of the night. Michael Jordan

Best Actress: Jessie Buckley “Hamnet”

Best Supporting Actor : Sean Penn “One Battle”

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan “Weapons”

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”

Best Original Screenplay: “Sinners” (This is an easy call, since the two screenplay categories eliminate any competition between “Sinners’ and “Battle”.)

Best Adapted Screenplay: “One Battle After Another”

Best International Feature Film: It’s got to be either “The Secret Agent” or “Sentimental Value”. I’m going with the latter.

Best Animated Feature Film: “KPop Demon Hunters”

Best Animated Short Film: ”Butterfly”

Documentary Feature Film: “The Perfect Neighbor”

Documentary Short Film: I’m just guessing here: “All the Empty Rooms”

Live Action Short Film: Another guess: “The Singers”

Casting: “Sinners”

Cinematography: “One Battle”

Costume Design: I think this is between “Frankenstein” and “Sinners”, but I’m giving “Frankenstein” the edge.

Film Editing: “One Battle”

Makeup and Hairstyling: Probably a close race between “Sinners” and “Frankenstein”. I’ll go with “Sinners”.

Original Score: Ludwig Goransson, “Sinners”

Original Song: I’m hoping for an upset in favor of “I Lied to You”, but I suspect that “Golden” is unstoppable.

Production Design: “Frankenstein”

Sound: “Sinners”

Visual Effects: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

Will the ceremony be another disaster. as has so frequently been the case in recent years? Will punches be thrown? And who will Ruma, Mira and Zoey be wearing? Find out Sunday night, if you can take it.